Analysis with the help of the statistical program EViews
Why EViews? Because it contains ready-made econometric analysis libraries, provides high-quality graphics and is user-friendly.
The following is a small presentation of EViews capabilities with data regarding the monthly number of road accidents for the period January 2010 to June 2017 according to the data of ELSTAT.
Sample description
In all the following cases we observe a downward trend, annual periodicity of prices and a different evolution of deaths from accidents and
For every 100 road accidents we expect the death of approximately 8 (Mean =77.7) people, the serious injury of 10 (Mean=101.55) people and the slight injury of 115 (Mean=1183.044 ) of individuals.
|
ACCIDENTS |
DEAD |
INJURYHEAVY |
INJURYLIGHT |
|
| Mean |
1032.111 |
77.70000 |
101.5556 |
1183.044 |
| Median |
1026.000 |
72.00000 |
94.00000 |
1170.000 |
| Maximum |
1424.000 |
149.0000 |
210.0000 |
1700.000 |
| Minimum |
648.0000 |
42.00000 |
38.00000 |
744.0000 |
| Std. Dev. |
167.2216 |
21.00318 |
38.78813 |
201.3046 |
| Skewness |
0.133450 |
0.885721 |
0.636973 |
0.128269 |
| Kurtosis |
2.775040 |
3.511549 |
2.818915 |
2.885055 |
| Jarque-Bera |
0.456910 |
12.74884 |
6.208980 |
0.296342 |
| Probability |
0.795762 |
0.001705 |
0.044847 |
0.862284 |
| Sum |
92890.00 |
6993.000 |
9140.000 |
106474.0 |
| Sum Sq. Dev. |
2488713. |
39260.90 |
133902.2 |
3606596. |
| Observations |
90 |
90 |
90 |
90 |
Correlation
The correlation between the variables is very strong while the almost perfect linear relationship between the number of minor injuries and the number of accidents is striking.
Seasonality
Most road accidents as well as injuries are expected in the summer months, but the most fatal ones in August and the first months of Autumn, while the minimum values in all the previous variables
Linear regression
The number of accidents seems to be decreasing at a rate of 4 accidents per month
While the forecast for the next months shows a downward trend
Conclusion
We expect a steady decrease in the number of road accidents, while the decrease in road accidents in the summer months is expected to significantly reduce the number of injuries and losses due to road accidents.
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